HDB Resale Price Trends in 2026: What the Data Says

For six years the only question about HDB resale prices was how fast they were rising. In 2026 the answer changed. The index has now fallen two quarters in a row, and the numbers below cover what that shift means if you are buying or selling this year.

The headline numbers

Quarter	Resale Price Index	Change
Q4 2025	203.6	—
Q1 2026	203.4	−0.1%
Q2 2026 (flash)	202.7	−0.3%

Source: HDB Resale Price Index, Q2 flash estimate.

The Q1 dip of 0.1% was the first quarterly decline since Q2 2019. The Q2 flash estimate made it two in a row, the first consecutive decline since the 2018–2019 cooling stretch. Against a year ago, the index is still up about 1.2%.

What actually changed

Three forces explain the dip:

1. Supply caught up. The post-pandemic BTO completion backlog cleared through 2024–2025, and heavy launch programmes gave would-be resale buyers a subsidised alternative, including Plus and Prime flats in locations that once forced buyers into resale.
2. Financing stayed tight. The HDB loan-to-value limit has sat at 75% since August 2024, and the 30% Mortgage Servicing Ratio caps what any income level can pay. Once sentiment cooled, those borrowing caps set the ceiling on what buyers could offer.
3. The affordability ceiling asserted itself. After roughly 40% cumulative index growth from 2020 to 2025, monthly repayments on typical flats pressed against what a median income can service. Buyers ran out of headroom.

A falling index and record million-dollar flats, both true

A record 412 flats transacted above $1 million in Q1 2026 even as the index dipped. There is no contradiction: the index tracks the whole market's price movement, while million-dollar deals cluster in central towns, larger flat types, and young leases. Scarce, distinctive flats are having a different year from the ordinary 4-room in a mature estate.

The practical lesson runs in both directions. Sellers of ordinary flats should not price off million-dollar headlines; sellers of genuinely scarce flats should not underprice off index gloom. Your relevant market is your town, flat type and lease band, and the transacted records for it are public.

What it means if you are selling

Momentum has turned mildly against you, while absolute prices remain near records. For your sale, that means:

• Waiting for a better market is now a bet against the data. The past two quarters' direction is down, gently. If selling serves your plans, the argument for delay has to come from your circumstances, not the index.
• Pricing discipline is the whole game. In a flat market, the gap between transacted and asking prices is where flats sit unsold. Price at your stack's recent transactions and you will still find buyers; Q1 demand held around normal volumes.
• If your sale funds a private purchase, sequencing now matters more than timing. The trade-offs are laid out in sell first or buy first.

What it means if you are buying

• Do not wait for a crash that the data does not support. Two quarters totalling −0.4% is moderation. The structural supports under HDB prices (income-linked financing, controlled supply, genuine owner-occupier demand) are intact.
• Negotiating room is back. For the first time since 2019, time is on the buyer's side in ordinary segments. Offers below asking that would have been dismissed in 2022 now get counteroffers.
• Your leverage is strongest when your paperwork is ready: an HFE letter in hand and financing pre-cleared, per our resale process guide, lets you move on a fairly-priced flat while others assemble documents.

Where that leaves buyers and sellers

The 2020–2025 HDB bull run is over; nothing in the data says a bust has begun. Prices are drifting sideways-to-slightly-down from record levels, with segments diverging underneath. Sellers who price at fantasy will sit unsold, and buyers who hold out for 2019 prices will keep waiting. We will update this analysis as each quarter's index lands.

Sources: HDB — 1Q2026 public housing data, ERA — 2Q2026 flash commentary, Stacked Homes — Q1 2026 analysis.